Have an idea?

Visit Sawtooth Software Feedback to share your ideas on how we can improve our products.

Monte Carlo simulation in Sawtooth

Hi,

I'm wondering if there is a way to do a Monte Carlo sim in Sawtooth. Is the test design feature essentially just a Monte Carlo simulation with a uniform distribution of choice selections?

If not does anyone have any suggestions? I'm looking to test some different design types (custom ones etc.)

Thanks

Jasha
asked Sep 25 by Jasha Bowe Bronze (1,680 points)

1 Answer

0 votes
 
Best answer
Jasha,

Simulation using the beta draws from HB will give you a distribution of likely outcomes that to my way of thinking is a good and proper Monte Carlo simulation (a simulation of probable outcomes using a distribution of uncertainty around the parameters).
answered Sep 25 by Bryan Orme Platinum Sawtooth Software, Inc. (128,365 points)
selected Sep 25 by Jasha Bowe
Thanks Bryan I thought this might be the case. However are you referring to the final output betas that available after the HB process has finished iterating or are you referring to the random draws from which the point estimates are derived in which case I would  use the "save random draws" function?

Thanks

Jasha
The "used" draws.  Not the average of the draws (point estimates).
...